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Shanghai Steel's recent trend is more entangled. After a continuous rebound last week, it fell sharply on Monday. As of Tuesday's close, the main rebar index of 1810 closed at 3,753 yuan / ton. The author believes that the tangled trend of rebar will continue. On the macro level, the recent situation is complex and volatile, the market is worried about systemic risks, and domestic economic uncertainty is increasing. In terms of industry, after the coming of the off-season, the market turnover weakened, and the inventory went up for two consecutive weeks. The market has great differences on the persistence and extent of inventory accumulation. In general, the main contradictions at the macro and industrial levels are not clear in the near future. In addition to the numerous uncertainties, the short-term space for rebar is limited.
Systemic risk still exists
Sino-US trade frictions continue to heat up, and the two sides want to impose import tariffs on each other's goods, and the amount and variety are increasing, which makes the market's concerns about the escalation of trade friction intensified. In addition, the onshore dollar-to-renminbi exchange rate fell rapidly from around 6.40 in mid-June to a recent high of 6.70, and the stock market suffered a continuous decline. This reflects the market's concerns about a range of risks that may arise from trade frictions, and although pessimism begins to moderately ease, this concern about systemic risk will continue until the boots have yet to land.
Terminal transactions weakened
As the weather heats up, the effects of weather on steel end consumption, especially building materials, are gradually emerging. From the end of June, terminal transactions have weakened. According to the national trader's steel transaction data monitored by Mysteel, the average daily trading volume in the second half of June decreased by 7.23% from the previous middle, and the volume shrinkage will continue as the high temperature weather continues. At the same time, this year's financial de-leverage has led to tight capital and high capital costs. The main strategy adopted by downstream real estate companies is to speed up construction progress and increase the speed of capital flow. Therefore, the rhythm of terminal demand release is particularly obvious, and terminal demand is greatly increased from April to May. After the initial demand is released, the shrinking demand will be more obvious.
Market inventory has an inflection point
The weakening of terminal demand has led to an increase in the inventory level of the entire steel industry. In mid-June, the inflection point of social inventory and steel mill stocks began to appear. As of last Friday, the social stock of all kinds of steel products was 10.256 million tons, up by 155,000 tons, and the steel mill's capacity inventory was 4,464,500 tons, up by 177,800 tons, a total increase of 332,800 tons, social inventory and steel mill inventory. There has been a synchronous rebound.
The rebound in stocks in the off-season was in line with market expectations. In the same period last year, steel stocks also accumulated. However, the accumulated inventory time was short and the magnitude was small. Therefore, the accumulation and persistence of follow-up stocks are the main differences in the market, and they need attention in the later period. Core indicator. If the total inventory continues to rise sharply, it may mean that the short-term supply and demand have an inflection point, which will bring downward pressure on steel. If the inventory is the same as last year, it will only have a short-term accumulation, which will not have a big negative impact on the market.