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Today's official channels have appeared "Notice on Further Implementing the Policy of Promoting Pressure and Pressure to Promote the Balanced Operation of the Steel Market" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. The document emphasizes that the steel production capacity has produced a large effect last year, but it also warns of the excessive increase in domestic steel prices since last year. In order to consolidate the results of excessive steel production capacity, improve the effective supply of steel, and avoid large fluctuations in the market, several measures will be taken to maintain the relative stability of the market. First, in-depth development of the steel industry to resolve excess capacity. Second, unswervingly eliminate the backward production capacity of the steel industry. Third, actively support legal and compliance enterprises to strengthen effective supply. Fourth, earnestly implement financial policies with safeguards. Fifth, give full play to the expected effect of futures prices on spot prices. 6. Strengthen comprehensive coordination and standardize market order. The overall idea of this notice is to maintain the stable operation of steel prices, guide the steel enterprises to rationally price, guide the compliance enterprises to effectively release production capacity, increase supply, and stabilize steel prices from cracking down on futures speculation, cracking down on spot hoarding and malicious speculation. These factors are negative for recent price movements. However, the first two, continue to carry out the work of de-capacity, unswervingly remove the backward production capacity, but it is conducive to the operation of steel prices. Under the background that domestic steel prices remain at 3,000 yuan and steel companies have reasonable profits, the introduction of this document is expected to have little impact on steel prices.
There is also a news today. The China Development and Reform Commission is considering to allow coal mines to be produced in 330 working days and resume production to 276 working days after the end of the heating season in mid-March to prevent another overcapacity. The person familiar with the matter said that the NDRC would consider resuming the implementation of the 276 working day limit measures for six months after the end of the heating season to observe the effect. In addition, the NDRC may allow some areas and some coal mines not to resume restrictions, and still produce according to 330 working days. It is reported that the following categories do not perform 276 working days (advanced production capacity, first-class high-efficiency production capacity, secondary high-efficiency production capacity, coking coal and fat coal, and eight provinces such as Sichuan, Sichuan and Hunan). In short, most of the power coal mines are not implemented, and coking coal fat coal is not implemented at all. The NDRC has not yet finalized the plan. In the past two months, with the gradual increase in coking coal supply, coking coal prices and coke prices have continued to decline, and domestic coke prices have been lowered by 350-400 yuan from the highest point. If it is implemented in accordance with the above policies, coking coal and coke prices may continue to decline.
Today, the domestic steel price increase has narrowed, and some varieties have seen their prices fall back. The futures market as a whole showed a weak form, with the period of snails, period rolls and mines being dominated by a narrow range. After the continuous pull-up from last weekend to the beginning of this week, the market entered a relatively cautious state of paralysis today, and the current market divergence is relatively large, bullish bearish. At present, the factors affecting the steel market are mainly concentrated on the changes in the futures market caused by the inventory, the central bank policy and Yellen's interest rate increase speech, the expectation of the production of production cuts by the opening of the two sessions, and the psychological support of the environmental protection plus code for the market. It should be said that the changes in the latter two factors need to have a continuous pull-up process under the support of relatively low inventory, and the current steel market is basically inconsistent. The continuous release of monetary policy signals is relatively obvious for the repression of the capital market, and the expected performance of the market can be greatly reduced. In the short term, domestic steel prices remain relatively cautious.
According to the monitoring data of Lange Steel Cloud Business Platform, today, the average price of Ф25mm third-grade rebar in key cities in China is 3,603 yuan (ton price, the same below), which is 11 yuan higher than yesterday; the average price of 6.5mm high line in domestic key cities is 3734 yuan, up 9 yuan compared with yesterday; the average price of 5.5mm hot rolled coil in key cities in China is 3867 yuan, which is the same as yesterday; the average price of 1.0mm cold plate in domestic key central city is 4794 yuan, down 1 yuan from yesterday; domestic The average price of the 20mm medium plate in key cities was 3,620 yuan, up 3 yuan from yesterday.
In terms of raw materials, today, Tangshan area 150*150 carbon billet 3090 yuan, unchanged from yesterday; Jingtang port 61.5% grade Australian PB iron ore powder price is 720 yuan, unchanged from yesterday; Tangshan area quasi-level metallurgical coke including tax The price of the factory was 1830 yuan, which was the same as yesterday.
In the previous period, the 1705 contract of rebar futures opened at 3,442 yuan/ton on the 15th, and then fluctuated within a narrow range. The lowest price was 3,350 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,458 yuan/ton, and the price was 3,391 yuan. On the trading day (14th), the settlement price fell 28 yuan/ton, and the turnover was 3,270,782. The open interest was 2,854,176 lots, an increase of 149,008 lots.
The hot rolled coil futures 1705 contract opened at 3,724 yuan/ton on the 15th, and then fluctuated within a narrow range. The lowest price was 3,651 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,742 yuan/ton, and closed at 3,677 yuan/ton. Compared with the previous trading day (14th), the settlement price fell by 31 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 240,880, and the open interest was 331,776 lots, an increase of 8,770 lots.
Iron ore futures 1705 contract opened at 712 yuan / ton in early trading on the 15th, followed by a narrow range of fluctuations, the lowest 691 yuan / ton throughout the day, the highest 718 yuan / ton, closed at 697.5 yuan / ton, compared to the previous trading day (14 The settlement price fell by 9.5 yuan, with 1,963,814 transactions, and 1,289,760 positions, an increase of 19,064 lots.
Coke futures 1705 contract opened at 1681 yuan / ton on the 15th, followed by a narrow range of fluctuations, the lowest throughout the day 1,623 yuan / ton, the highest 1687 yuan / ton, closed at 1655.5 yuan / ton, compared to the previous trading day (14th) The settlement price fell by 15.5 yuan, with 118,218 contracts, and the positions were 125,114, down 3,954 contracts.
On the macro level, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) held a press conference today (15th) that as of the end of 2016, the 12 major categories of major engineering packages have completed an investment of 792.23 billion yuan, and 48 special projects and 507 projects have been started.
In the case of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas where the pressure of treatment is still relatively large, the 2017 measures will be further overweight. It is reported that the "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas 2017 air pollution prevention work program" (draft for comments) (hereinafter referred to as the "work plan") is seeking advice. According to the "Work Plan", in the cities where the AQI (Air Quality Index) Index is "exploded", the relevant departments plan to increase the production limit of steel enterprises, and at the same time implement the peak production of electrolytic aluminum and chemical enterprises. According to industry sources, the “Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Area 2017 Air Pollution Prevention and Control Work Plan” (draft for comments) is seeking opinions from Beijing and Tianjin, and the governance measures are very strong. For example, in the winter heating season of 2017, the relevant city steel is limited to 50%, and the electrolytic aluminum plant is limited to 30%.
The operating environment of the steel industry has begun to show a gradual improvement trend, and most steel listed companies have achieved profit recovery in 2016. According to statistics, as of February 14, 32 companies in the steel sector have disclosed the 2016 annual report performance forecast, and 23 companies have achieved positive results. Among them, 17 companies are expected to turn losses into profits, accounting for 53.13%. They are *ST Jinrui (526.58%), Shagang (422.49%), Sangang Shuguang (208.00%), Hangzhou Steel (166.95%), Shougang (139.59%), Angang (135.05%), too Steel stainless (133.68%), Hongda Mining (132.44%), Maanshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. (125.56%), Bengang Steel Plate (120.04%), Nangang Steel (114.39%), Xining Special Steel (105.56%), Anyang Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. (104.70%), *ST Handan Iron and Steel (104.05%), Baotou Steel (103.02%), Jiuquan Hongxing (101.06%) and *ST Bayi Steel (100.80%). At the same time, in terms of pre-increased, five companies including Xingang, Baosteel, Fangda Special Steel, Linggang and Hegang expect to double their net profit in 2016, reaching 857.73%, 770.00% and 540.00% respectively. 200.00%, 179.01%; Yongxing Special Steel is expected to slightly increase its performance in 2016.